What Does the Google Monopoly Ruling Mean for Search Marketing?

In a landmark ruling in United States of America et al., v. Google LLC, Judge Amit P. Mehta ruled that Google broke antitrust laws to maintain a monopoly in the online search market. So, what does that mean for the future of digital marketing and how should marketers prepare?

Quick Case Summary

The case was first brought by the Department of Justice (DOJ) in 2020. Closing arguments occurred in May 2024, and the ruling was announced on August 5th, 2024.

In the case, the DOJ and additional states sued Google for illegal dominance in the online search space. Google currently controls about 90% of general search services, and that increases to about 95% for search on mobile devices.

The case and ruling rested mostly on contracts that Google had with both Apple’s Safari and Mozilla’s Firefox. In fulfilling these contracts, Google spent billions of dollars to ensure that the Google search engine was the default option on Apple cellphones and the Firefox browser.

What Happens Now?

The court must now choose a remedy, and there are different avenues this remedy could take. The court could require new rules for how Google can share data, engage in partnerships, or conduct other practices. But the other option—and the one people are most stirred up about—is that the court could order a split of the company.

A court-ordered break up of Google would be big. Google isn’t a company—like many large enterprises—that has multiple leading products with multiple divisions. It’s generally considered a one-product company. Although the umbrella company Alphabet has tried various things over the years, the overwhelming majority of their revenue is from search advertising. Over 55% of the revenue is tied to Google Search, and the next biggest revenue sources under Alphabet—YouTube and Google Cloud (each making up about 10% of the overall revenue)—are irrelevant to the issues in this case.

Although this break-up has gotten significant attention, legal experts suggest it’s a long shot. American courts have been historically very reluctant to break up successful companies. So, many people watching the case fallout are expecting behavioral remedies instead of a company split.

What Should Digital Marketers Be Considering?

Changes Will Be Slow

The first thing to consider is that digital marketers have time to prepare for some shifts in the search engine landscape. Remediation decisions will take a while, appeals will take longer, and then after whatever remediation rulings are applied… it’ll take time for the search engine landscape to adjust. And that is all assuming that the decision isn’t overturned in the appeals process. Nobody must make any radical or immediate actions.

Potential Organic Search Changes

The ruling could impact SEO in a few different ways. Alternative search engines such as Duck Duck Go or Bing might increase share dramatically (dramatic compared to where they sit now). Or new search engines might enter the game because entrepreneurs see a possible opening. 

Even if that happens, we doubt market share changes will require dramatic shifts in terms of SEO strategy. Much of the foundation of good, solid SEO strategy is universal and will show excellent performance for Duck Duck Go or Bing or Yahoo. Short-term or risky strategy will be less likely to pay off—but bluntly, that type of SEO strategy does not tend to far well right now anyway.

There is a possibility that one big rule of SEO that we are all supposed to play be is link buying and selling. If Google has to change practices and/or other search engines rise, they might not have as strict or as strictly enforced rules about link selling. Again, we think this is fairly unlikely and a risky bet to make all around.

Potential Paid Search Changes

Here is the place that we expect the most turmoil, and this shouldn’t be surprising to anyone actively engaged in SEM. Paid ad channels have seen quite a bit of turmoil over the past few years completely unrelated to Google as a monopoly consideration. Businesses jumped off X/LinkedIn; Meta ads have been called a rollercoaster as of late; Tik Tok ads have thrown a wrench into several businesses’ strategies; Amazon Ads changed eCommerce altogether. Bluntly, the paid ad area is a fast-moving channel and an ever-changing ecosystem.

Although several other ad networks have seen rises and falls of popularity and success, Google Ads has continued to be a strong force, but Google could be forced to change their business practices quite a bit. Alternative ad platforms gaining strength could change things more quickly than in the organic realm and more dramatically. Changes and more competition could mean lower CPCs, more ad transparency, different bidding processes, higher regulatory scrutiny, and less revenue overall.

If you are a digital marketer that relies heavily on paid ads as your top or one of your top digital marketing channels, we recommend you take a long and hard look at your overall digital marketing strategy and long-term roadmap. Consider diversification across all paid aspects: diversify channel mix, direct placement, video platforms, audio and podcast platforms, sponsored content, influencer marketing, social media platforms. If Google Ads have been your solid core spend, start budgeting more for experimental spend to find additional core pillars for the future.

Audit Your Overall Search Strategy

If you need help navigating search changes or needed improvements in your paid and organic search strategy, we can help. Cimarron Winter can help you take a strategic and full funnel approach to content and campaign management.